As the United States gears up for its next presidential election, the repercussions on trade relations with neighboring countries, Canada and Mexico, are coming into sharp focus. This relationship is steeped in history, with countless individuals and businesses on both sides of the border feeling the ripple effects of U.S. political decisions. Maximum tension is observed in border towns, where the emotions run high as residents ponder how the election will shape their lives.
In Fort Erie, Ontario, a town adjacent to Buffalo, New York, the political landscape is a typical conversation starter, especially as the U.S. election approaches. For Ernie, an 85-year-old local, political discussions often take a backseat to social gatherings, yet the looming election has intensified debates in bars such as Southsides Patio Bar & Grill. Here, bartender Lauren recounts breaking up arguments fueled by political alcohol-infused conversations, emphasizing that whether individuals are discussing lofty political ideals or community issues, the anxiety surrounding U.S. policies permeates their daily lives.
Further southwest, in Ciudad Juarez, Mexico, residents also express trepidation as they navigate the complicated dynamics of cross-border employment. Sofia Ana, who commutes to El Paso, Texas, for work, articulates the shared sentiment of countless others who legally cross the border daily. With employment opportunities and benefits more attractive across the line, there’s a clear vested interest in maintaining amicable relations with the United States. Ana echoes that the state of trade is critical—it directly impacts Mexicans’ livelihoods and sense of security.
The numbers speak volumes about the significance of this trade relationship. In 2022, the two-way trade of goods between the U.S. and Mexico soared to an impressive $807 billion, making Mexico the biggest trading partner for the U.S. in physical goods. Canada follows closely behind with $782 billion in trade, highlighting a robust regional economic interdependence that is often challenged by political changes.
As the U.S. election approaches on November 5, the two leading candidates, former President Donald Trump and current Vice President Kamala Harris, present contrasting visions of future trade policies. Trump is known for advocating for strong tariffs across the board, suggesting rates as high as 60% on Chinese goods while placing a 20% tariff on imports from other nations—including both Canada and Mexico. Harris, on the other hand, is anticipated to favor the continuation of more open trade policies reflective of the Biden administration’s approach, despite her prior reservations regarding the 2020 United States Mexico Canada Agreement (USMCA).
These contrasting policy proposals leave residents and businesses on edge. Adrian Ramos, a business owner in Juarez, points to the U.S. electoral process’s unpredictability as his primary concern and understands that the winner’s stance will likely alter the trajectory of his business operations. His comments resonate with Puslinch, Ontario beef farmer Dave Braden, who fears that a Trump win could lead to tariffs that disrupt trade flows.
Beyond the immediate effects on trade, international relations experts contend that essential issues such as migration, security, and trade will consistently remain salient regardless of the election outcome. Lila Abed, a scholar on U.S.-Mexico relations, notes that both political parties in the U.S. share concerns related to Chinese investments in Mexico, which may influence the bilateral agenda once the election dust settles.
With the political climate stirring apprehensions in cross-border operatives, the Canadian government is reportedly engaging with Trump’s camp to seek exemptions from potential tariffs, highlighting the intricate web of diplomatic relations at play. Canada’s Minister for Innovation, Science, and Industry, François Champagne, actively monitors the electoral polls while strengthening relationships with U.S. counterparts to emphasize just how interconnected the two economies are.
As the date of decision nears, the anxiety among Canadians and Mexicans reveals a profound understanding of the high stakes involved. The outcome of the 2024 U.S. presidential election will undoubtedly have far-reaching implications, forging paths that will either enhance or hinder the existing trade dynamics—an outcome that communities and businesses on both sides of the border are keenly watching.
