The ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia has seen dramatic developments, especially with the recent approval by President Biden to provide anti-personnel mines to Ukraine, along with permission to use long-range missiles against targets within Russian territory. This pivotal decision comes against the backdrop of intensifying Russian military advances along the frontline. Data from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reveals that Russia has already gained significantly more territory in 2024 compared to the previous year, capturing almost six times the land it managed in 2023, and is closing in on vital Ukrainian logistical hubs situated in the eastern Donbas region.
In parallel, a Ukrainian incursion into Russia’s Kursk region has encountered setbacks, with reports indicating that Russian forces have repelled the Ukrainian offensive. The offensive has drawn criticism from military experts, with some labeling it a strategic catastrophe attributed to Ukraine’s struggles with manpower shortages. These military vicissitudes occur amid not only the immediate battlefield realities but also the backdrop of a potential second Donald Trump administration, which poses uncertainties regarding U.S. military aid as Trump has pledged to end the war swiftly upon taking office in January.
### Russia’s Territorial Gains in Eastern Ukraine
Initially, the early months of the conflict saw rapid advancements by Russian forces, only for Ukraine to push them back through counteroffensives. However, as the ISW data suggests, the landscape in 2024 appears significantly more favorable to Russia. Confirmed social media footage and troop movement reports underscore that Moscow’s forces have successfully seized roughly 2,700 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory up till now in 2024, a stark increase from the mere 465 square kilometers claimed throughout the entirety of last year.
The rapid advance includes critical areas such as Kupiansk in the Kharkiv region and Kurakhove in Donetsk, which are seen as stepping stones towards pivotal logistics hubs. Defense researcher Dr. Marina Miron emphasized that there looms a risk of the Ukrainian eastern front collapsing if Russian gains continue at this escalating pace. Indeed, upwards of 1,000 square kilometers have reportedly been taken by Russian forces between September and early November, showing a marked acceleration in their campaign.
Despite these advances, the toll on Russian forces cannot be overlooked, as an analysis by BBC Russian indicates that approximately 78,329 Russian troops have been killed since the full-scale invasion commenced in February 2022. Furthermore, losses were reportedly more severe from September through November this year compared to the same timeframe a year prior, fueling criticism of Russia’s “meat grinder” tactics that employ waves of recruits to wear down Ukrainian positions.
### The Kursk Offensive and Its Consequences
Ukraine’s audacious move into Kursk commenced in August 2023, quickly capturing several border communities. Nevertheless, the rationale behind Russia’s seemingly delayed response remains unclear as it has recently deployed approximately 50,000 troops to reclaim lost territory. Reports estimate that since early October, Russian forces have successfully reclaimed nearly 593 square kilometers in the Kursk region.
Though this incursion initially inspired optimism amongst Ukrainian ranks, experts such as Dr. Miron argue it has led to a strategic bind for Ukraine, with forces now tied down in Kursk instead of withdrawing to reinforce other critical areas. Despite deploying some of its best-equipped brigades to the fighting, Ukraine’s territorialhold in Kursk has worsened, with some military analysts claiming that the operation, while tactically brilliant, has become strategically costly.
### The Implications on Negotiations
As U.S. President-elect Trump prepares to take office, fears abound within Ukraine regarding the possible cutting of military aid, which could severely affect the country’s ability to sustain its defense against ongoing Russian advances. Drawing from historical context, it is evident that Moscow’s current territorial control provides it with leverage in any future negotiation processes. Dr. Miron noted that Russia’s increased hold on territory bolsters their position, making it more challenging for Ukraine, which is increasingly boxed in on the battlefield.
In summary, as the conflict unfolds with territory at stake and both sides facing their own military hardships, the dynamics between the Ukrainian forces and Russian military efforts will be critical in shaping potential negotiations in the future. The ongoing situation remains fraught with uncertainty, and its resolution appears tethered to the balance of power established through continued military engagements.
