The counting process for the Irish general election will begin on Saturday morning at 09:00 local time, as reports from exit polls indicate a competitive race among the three dominant political parties. The exit polls conducted on Friday show that Sinn Féin, the party led by Mary Lou McDonald, is slightly leading in first preference votes against its nearest rivals, Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil.
This election marks a significant moment in Irish politics as a record number of 174 Teachtaí Dála (TDs), the members of the Irish parliament, are set to be elected, an increase from 160 in the previous elections held in 2020. The expansion of the Dáil to 43 constituencies from 39 will allow each constituency to elect between three and five TDs. Since one seat is allocated to the Ceann Comhairle (Speaker), a party needs to secure 88 TDs to gain an overall majority, indicating the competitive nature of this election.
The count of votes will take place in over 40 locations throughout the Republic of Ireland, with a strong contingent of more than 680 candidates vying for the available 173 seats. As the counting begins, the first results are expected to emerge later in the afternoon, paving the way for a better understanding of the election outcome.
The results from Friday’s exit poll published at 22:00 local time indicate that Sinn Féin gathered 21.1% of first preference votes, closely followed by Fine Gael at 21%, and Fianna Fáil at 19.5%. The polling data also reveals a close contest among the smaller parties, with the Labour Party, the Green Party, and the Social Democrats all separated by less than 2% in projected votes.
Reflecting a shift in public sentiment, recent figures suggest that support for independent candidates has declined from 15% in the last election to 12% now. The exit poll, conducted by Ipsos B&A for prominent institutions including RTÉ, The Irish Times, TG4, and Trinity College Dublin, involved 5,018 completed interviews outside polling venues, yielding a margin of error of 1.4%.
The election process in the Republic of Ireland revolves around the single transferable vote system, which embodies proportional representation. Voters have the latitude to rank candidates based on their preferences, marking their choices sequentially. The counting occurs in rounds, with ballots assigned to the initial choice candidate until they achieve the requisite number of votes for election. Any remaining ballots for a candidate who has secured enough votes are then redistributed to second preferences according to voters’ rankings until all seats are filled by candidates meeting the required quota.
However, the process of counting and forming a government could extend over days or even months. Historical context suggests that it took four months after the 2020 elections for a coalition agreement to be reached between Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, and the Green Party. In the current political landscape, Sinn Féin is positioned as the leading opposition party, although both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael have precluded them from a potential coalition.
The inaugural assembly of the new Dáil is scheduled for December 18, but it seems unlikely that coalition negotiations will be finalized by then. The official establishment of a new government, culminating in a vote for a new Taoiseach (the Irish Prime Minister), is anticipated not before 2025, allowing for ample discussion and deliberation among party leaders navigating the complexities of shifting alliances.
For those interested in following the developments of the election, coverage will be broadcasted on BBC Two NI at 18:00 GMT on Saturday, with additional updates available on the BBC News NI website over the weekend.
