In the recent off-cycle elections, the Democratic Party demonstrated a noteworthy capacity for overperformance, echoing a trend observed in the lead-up to the 2024 elections. On a Tuesday marked by multiple significant races, Democrats not only made double-digit gains in various Florida congressional districts, but they also showed strength on the statewide level in Wisconsin. This performance highlights a growing trend among Democratic voters, who have been increasingly mobilized to participate in off-year contests. However, according to a CNN analysis, the results of this specific election may indicate more than just heightened engagement from the Democratic base.
It’s essential to remain cautious about interpreting special election results as predictive of future electoral successes. History shows that solid results in special elections do not always translate to generalized success in broader electoral contexts. Notably, during Donald Trump’s first term, Democrats recorded a series of impressive wins in special elections segued by the substantial victories in the 2018 midterms. Yet, in a contrast of expectations versus outcomes, they encountered challenges leading into the 2024 general election despite earlier successes.
A closer examination reveals that CNN looked into twelve House special elections occurring between the pivotal June 2022 Supreme Court decision that overturned Roe v. Wade and the 2024 general election. The analysis showed that, on average, Democrats experienced a favorable margin that was approximately 10.8 points greater than survey results from the 2022 midterms in the same districts.
In the specific Florida races, Democrats outperformed expectations significantly. Candidate Gay Valimont managed to decrease the Republican margin in Florida’s 1st District by 17.3 points, while Josh Weil tightened the gap by an impressive 19 points in the 6th District, where he contested to succeed Mike Waltz. In Wisconsin, Democratic-backed Judge Susan Crawford notably exceeded Kamala Harris’s margin from the 2024 presidential election by nearly 11 points.
Nevertheless, the volatility tied to special election margins complicates the foretelling of future electoral trends. While Democratic supporters are optimistic that these results could lay the groundwork for strong showings in the 2026 midterm elections, Republican strategists may argue that the Democratic boost in off-cycle contests may not be sustained when contrasting voter turnout escalates during midterms. Notably, there are certain indicators from Tuesday’s elections that warrant close observation.
Significantly, the electorate in the Florida districts was observed to be considerably more Democratic compared to the November 2024 landscape. In Escambia County, for instance, the prior registered Republican edge over Democrats, which stood at 21.1 points in November, reduced to 11.3 points. Valimont’s efforts resulted in flipping a county that she previously lost by over 14 points, marking a critical shift since no Democrat had won in such federal races since 2006, the year Sen. Bill Nelson was reelected.
In Wisconsin, although party registration data isn’t available, signals suggest a more Democratic-leaning electorate compared to 2024. Particularly in counties that supported Harris, such as the Democratic stronghold Dane County, a higher percentage of the 2024 turnout was maintained relative to more rural, Republican-leaning counties.
The ideological shift toward a more engaged Democratic base could prove advantageous for the party as they approach the 2026 midterms. This outlook is underscored by the baseline that while midterms generally attract a higher turnout than special elections, they still typically see less participation compared to presidential elections.
The turnout on Tuesday was notably high for off-cycle elections. A CNN analysis showcased varying turnout levels across 12 House specials from June 2022 to the 2024 election. For example, participation in Ohio’s 6th Congressional District during the June 2024 special was only 21% of the total votes from the 2022 midterms. In contrast, elections like the one in New York’s 3rd Congressional District encountered a turnout of 64% relative to November 2022 elections. Such trends suggest a correlation between turnout levels and Democratic success in these special elections.
Although on Tuesday the Democrats thrived, even with a robust turnout, data indicates that turnout levels in recent important special elections tended to correlate with candidate performance. Ultimately, the standout performance of Democratic-aligned candidates sheds light on their potential advantages moving forward. High voter turnout, especially among Democratic constituents, could signal a promising trend as they eye future contests, clearly reflecting evolving political landscapes in key states.