The recent developments in Syria have prompted heightened attention from Biden administration officials as they observe the swift advances made by the Syrian rebels. According to sources from several U.S. officials, there is a growing possibility that the regime led by Bashar al-Assad could face a rapid downfall in the coming days, a notion that has significant implications given the context of the ongoing civil war that has persisted for 14 years. Until recently, the conflict had seen a relative stagnation, making the current momentum of the rebel forces particularly striking.
Despite these evolving dynamics, officials have been careful to temper their predictions. They assert that a formal evaluation regarding Assad’s fate is yet to be established. Although opinions among officials differ, many are now considering the potential for a sudden regime change as an increasingly credible scenario. One senior official conveyed the possible timeline, suggesting that the Assad regime might lose its grip on power as soon as next weekend, emphasizing how quickly the landscape is shifting.
The rebels have made notable advances, having successfully navigated through critical cities, leading to the routing of government forces. Their path now appears to be heading towards Homs, Syria’s third-largest city, and then onward to Damascus, the capital. The speed of these developments seems to have caught the Biden administration by surprise, as regime troops have disbanded or retreated, leaving behind a fragile semblance of defense for Assad and the capital.
Historically, U.S. intelligence has made misjudgments regarding the resiliency of foreign governments in conflict, recent examples being Afghanistan and Ukraine. These miscalculations have prompted a reevaluation of how the U.S. assesses the capabilities and will to fight of foreign military forces. Notably, the rapid advancements in Syria have set off alarm bells, leading to a reconsideration of previous assumptions.
At the forefront of the rebel campaign is a group known as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which has been designated as a terrorist organization by the U.S. government due to its historical ties to Al Qaeda. U.S. national security advisor Jake Sullivan expressed serious concerns regarding the group’s intentions while also acknowledging the pressure facing the Assad government, which is supported by Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah.
The response from Iran and Russia, traditionally key allies of Assad, appears to be lacking at this critical juncture. With their resources tied up in the ongoing war in Ukraine and facing setbacks in the region, it seems they may not intervene decisively to bolster Assad’s position. Observers suggest that HTS has exploited the distraction of Syria’s traditional power brokers to make significant strategic gains.
While the Pentagon maintains a contingent of approximately 900 U.S. troops in Syria, officials noted that there are currently no plans to alter their presence amid these developments. They are, however, enhancing their protective measures. Historically, the U.S. has collaborated with the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) against ISIS, but there are clear boundaries in terms of interaction with HTS, given its terrorist designation.
Interestingly, U.S. officials have inferred that Turkey, typically a foe of the Assad regime, has tacitly allowed HTS to initiate its actions. This complex web of alliances and interests illustrates the multi-faceted nature of the conflict, which continues to evolve rapidly.
As the situation develops, a pressing concern for the Biden administration remains the safety and security of Assad’s alleged stockpiles of chemical weapons, known to include chlorine and sarin. The potential for these weapons to be misused amidst the chaos poses a significant risk to both regional and international security.
Moreover, U.S. officials express uncertainty about Assad’s potential escape routes should his regime collapse. While his allies could offer sanctuary, questions loom about whether his foes, including the rebels, would target regions like Latakia, a bastion for the Alawite sect to which Assad belongs. This uncertain political landscape continues to evolve, and the implications for Syria and its surrounding regions remain vast and unpredictable.
