As the Canadian federal election approaches, the focus has drastically shifted from climate change to more immediate concerns, particularly in light of the increasing challenges presented by U.S. President Donald Trump. The issue of Canada’s contribution to global warming, which was previously a priority in the 2021 elections, has largely faded from the foreground. This election, the two main political contenders, Mark Carney of the Liberal Party and Pierre Poilievre of the Conservative Party, are emphasizing plans for energy infrastructure, as Canada aims to reduce its dependency on the United States.
Mark Carney, who has recently succeeded in becoming the leader of the Liberal Party and Prime Minister, envisions positioning Canada as a global powerhouse in both conventional and renewable energy sectors. Contrastingly, Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative Party seeks to invigorate the oil and gas industry while proposing to abolish the industrial carbon tax, which has been a contentious issue in recent years. The recent electoral landscape illustrates a stark difference from the last election cycle, where environmental concerns topped voter priorities.
Historically, the previous election saw a consensus between major political parties advocating for a swift transition to a green economy, which included the passing of a net-zero emissions law in June 2021. However, the political climate has shifted dramatically since then. Carney, despite his prestigious background as an advocate for climate action, including his leadership roles at the Bank of England and the UN Special Envoy on climate action, made headlines by repealing a crucial consumer carbon levy shortly after taking office. This move was seen as a significant step back from climate policy in Canada, a departure from the Liberals’ climate initiatives, which have been viewed as costly and ineffective by many voters.
This decision to remove the carbon tax has sparked mixed reactions. Some political analysts suggest it may have been a tactical maneuver to alleviate public concerns over the rising costs of living in Canada, while others argue it represents an acceptance of the narrative that climate policy is burdensome economically. Catherine Abreu, a noted climate activist and director of the International Climate Politics Hub, expressed concern that it created a missed opportunity to steer the narrative around climate policy in a more productive direction.
Carney’s proposed energy strategy emphasizes a dual approach where Canada could excel in both clean and traditional energy. He aims to promote green energy projects alongside investment in technologies like carbon capture, although specifics are still slim in his campaign details. Compounding the challenges for climate discussions are shifting public priorities; recent polls indicate that Canadian voters are more concerned about rising prices and housing costs rather than climate change, following an increase in energy and living expenses.
Moreover, the ongoing war in Ukraine has redirected focus on Canada’s extensive natural resources, reinforcing the demand for oil, gas, and critical minerals. Mark Winfield, professor at York University, highlights how Canada has found itself as a key resource supplier, drawing interest from various geopolitical allies seeking alternatives to Russian resources. This change has influenced the framing around Canada’s energy production in ways that were not previously emphasized in past elections.
On the opposition side, Pierre Poilievre emphasizes cost-of-living issues alongside law and order, while pushing for a substantial expansion of the oil and gas sectors. His positions have resonated well in energy-rich areas of Canada, despite his limited public stances on supporting the nation’s net-zero goals. He suggests that transitioning from “dirty coal” to cleaner Canadian fossil fuels would be a progressive step for countries like India, further complicating the debate about climate policy in terms of international advocacy.
As the election nears, discussions on energy continue, especially given Ontario’s critical economic statistics, with strong indications of the need for a rethink on pipelines and energy exports. Carney has expressed concerns regarding America’s dependence on Canada’s oil and gas supplies, linking national security with energy reliance and suggesting that addressing this balance is crucial for the country’s future. However, navigating the landscape where environmentalists and economic priorities exist at odds presents a steep challenge for both leading parties.
Despite growing skepticism around climate commitments as 2024 approached, leaders like Yves-François Blanchet of the Bloc Québécois have criticized both major parties for inadequately addressing the real implications of fossil fuel reliance on climate change. With Canada pledging to reduce carbon emissions by 40-45% by 2030, and current reports indicating only an 8.5% decrease, the future government faces the complex task of reconciling climate commitments with the prevailing energy narrative before the polls close on April 28, 2025.