As winter approaches North America, a significant group known as “snowbirds”, primarily from Canada, begins to plan their annual migrations to warm destinations, including Florida and the Caribbean. For many Canadians, Cuba has historically been a favored locale, with its stunning beach resorts like Varadero attracting nearly one million visitors last year alone, making it the leading country of origin for tourists to the island. This influx has proven essential for the Cuban economy, particularly given the travel restrictions that Americans have faced under the U.S. economic embargo.
However, recent developments cast a dark shadow over the future of Cuba’s tourism market. The Canadian tour operator Sunwing Vacations Group, which has long been one of Cuba’s significant partners, recently made a substantial cut by removing 26 hotels from its portfolio. This decision came on the heels of a national blackout that lasted four days due to Cuba’s aging energy infrastructure. The ongoing energy crisis has been compounded by additional national power outages caused by Hurricane Rafael, further destabilizing the situation in Cuba.
On December 4, just weeks after the prior blackouts, the situation escalated again when Cuba experienced another widespread power failure due to the breakdown of the country’s largest power plant. These incidents have raised alarms over consumer confidence in travelling to Cuba. Samantha Taylor, Sunwing’s chief marketing officer, acknowledged these concerns while emphasizing that the company is not abandoning Cuba altogether. Instead, they are offering customers alternative destinations in nearby locales like the Dominican Republic and the Bahamas, identifying them as “hidden gems.”
The impact on Cuba’s economy is pervasive. With tourism now representing a crucial component of the Cuban economy—followed closely by remittances—any decline in visitor numbers threatens the country’s financial stability. Less than a decade ago, U.S. tourists flocked to Cuba as relations thawed under President Obama, leading to a boom in tourism and hotel construction. Since then, however, tourist numbers have plummeted by nearly fifty percent, largely due to the reversal of engagement policies and the additional toll from the COVID-19 pandemic.
Cuba’s tourism director in Toronto, Lessner Gómez, expressed optimism by highlighting that the Ministry of Tourism is committed to improving services in anticipation of the winter season, including better airport experiences and more car rentals. Nonetheless, the ongoing challenges presented by energy shortages and extreme weather events—particularly the recent hurricane season—coupled with fears of political repercussions from the U.S., paint a grim picture.
The political landscape adds another layer of complexity. The potential re-election of Donald Trump, together with the expected appointment of Marco Rubio as Secretary of State, has raised significant concerns regarding U.S.-Cuba relations. Many analysts and Cuban commentators believe that Trump’s presidency could usher in an era of intensified pressure on Cuba through tightened sanctions, further damaging its fragile tourism industry.
Jesús Arboleya, a former Cuban diplomat, remarked on the unprecedented challenges facing the Cuban Revolution, noting a bleak outlook for future U.S.-Cuba relations. He highlighted that current U.S. policies are paradoxical, simultaneously supporting private sector growth while stifling economic reforms through legislative stagnation. Observers worry that if sanctions tighten, they could see drastic measures such as suspending commercial flights to Cuba or re-closing the U.S. Embassy in Havana, steps that would further cripple the tourism sector.
Recent trends suggest that Cuba’s reliance on tourism as a pillar of its economy may be unsustainable, especially given the lack of investment in energy infrastructure compared to tourism facilities. Economist Ricardo Torres highlighted this disparity, questioning the rationale behind such heavy investment in tourism while neglecting essential energy needs. Though Cuba remains a unique travel destination rich in culture, history, and natural beauty, the current energy crisis—coupled with the prospect of hostile political relations—casts a long shadow over the future of its tourism industry.
As tourists weigh their options amid these issues, the decision by Sunwing to reduce its portfolio signifies a critical moment for Cuba, testing the resilience of its tourism sector and the adaptability of its economic strategies in an increasingly challenging climate.
