The recent increase in disability benefit claims has sparked significant discussion and analysis among policymakers and the public alike. The government has confirmed details of a revised plan to reform health and disability benefits following pressure from Labour Members of Parliament. Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall announced that changes to the Personal Independence Payment (PIP) would only impact new claimants, indicating a focused approach after widespread concerns about current welfare provisions.
Interestingly, the government also decided that payments to existing recipients of the health-related portion of Universal Credit, which was formerly known as incapacity benefit, would not face a freeze—a move that may reflect an effort to maintain support for those already reliant on these benefits. However, government analysis estimating the consequences of welfare reforms predicts that an additional 150,000 individuals may find themselves in relative poverty as a consequence of these changes, raising the stakes in an already contentious debate.
According to recent figures, the number of working-age adults claiming disability benefits has surged in recent years. In 2019, nearly three million individuals aged 16 to 64 in England and Wales claimed either disability or incapacity benefits. However, by March 2025, this number had escalated to approximately four million—representing a striking increase that translates to one in ten people in this demographic. Research from the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) attributes much of this rise to conditions related to mental health, which accounted for a significant percentage of claims. The category labeled ‘mental and behavioral disorders,’ including conditions such as Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD), now represents 44% of all claims, a clear increase from about 39% in 2015.
The demographic distribution of these claims reveals additional complexities. IFS data indicates that a substantial 69% of new claimants at the age of 25 primarily report mental and behavioral disorders, in contrast to only 22% of new claimants aged 55. This suggests that younger adults may be increasingly willing to seek assistance for mental health issues compared to older adults, hinting at changing attitudes toward mental health and welfare support.
Evaluating the procedures for benefit claims, eligibility for PIP is determined through a structured assessment process. Claimants undergo evaluations where health professionals score them on a scale based on their ability to perform daily tasks, such as grooming and meal preparation. Before the Covid-19 pandemic, the majority of these assessments were conducted face-to-face. However, due to pandemic-related restrictions, there was a swift transition to telephone and video assessments, a change that has seemingly persisted as the new norm, with less than 10% of assessments now occurring in person.
Some analysts speculate that the decrease in face-to-face assessments could have sparked a higher volume of claims, as individuals may have been deterred by the stress and discomfort of in-person evaluations. Nevertheless, experts like Louise Murphy from the Resolution Foundation argue that approval rates for both assessment types have remained stable throughout the pandemic. Notably, there are approximately 1,000 new PIP awards granted every day, signaling a robust increase in claim activity.
Despite the compelling data concerning rising mental health conditions influencing the increase in claims, experts such as Murphy express uncertainty about underlying causes. One plausible explanation is the rising state pension age, which impacts the classification of individuals as ‘working-age.’ As the pension age approaches 67 by 2028, more people remain classified as working-age, resulting in more pressure on disability benefit systems.
In addition, researchers have pointed out that enhanced public understanding of welfare entitlements, especially in light of the economic shocks brought on by the pandemic and the subsequent cost-of-living crisis, may have led to an increase in applications. Eduin Latimer of the IFS corroborates this theory, noting that economic challenges often drive individuals to claim health-related benefits. However, he admits that the precise causes of the rise in PIP claims remain unclear.
Finally, the potential implications of the proposed reforms are stark. Initially, the government anticipated that changes could save around £5.5 billion annually by 2030; however, due to the adjustments following pushback, the revised expectation is about £2.5 billion in savings. Despite these modifications, welfare spending for working-age individuals is projected to exceed £72.3 billion by 2029–30, illustrating the extensive financial landscape shaping these claims. As discussions continue and a comprehensive review led by Work and Pensions Minister Stephen Timms commences, scheduled for the next Autumn, the landscape of disability benefit claims will be under close scrutiny as policymakers examine ways to optimize support while navigating the complexities of mental health and economic factors impacting the public.
