As the anticipation builds for the upcoming cycling season, the focus turns to some of the sport’s most prominent stars, notably Primož Roglič, Tadej Pogacar, Jonas Vingegaard, and Remco Evenepoel. With Pogacar (UAE Team Emirates-XRG) and Vingegaard (Visma-Lease a Bike) aiming for a dual conquest of the Tour de France and Vuelta a España, and Evenepoel (Soudal Quick-Step) concentrating solely on the Tour as he rehabilitates, Roglič has set his sights on securing his second Giro d’Italia win and subsequently a coveted yellow jersey in July.
Interestingly, the absence of three top-tier competitors at the “grande partenza” in Albania on May 9 is not perceived as detrimental to fans of what is often dubbed the “hardest race in the world’s most beautiful place.” Roglič represents one of five former Giro victors confirmed to participate. The reigning champion is joined by Jai Hindley (2022 winner), Egan Bernal (2021 winner), Nairo Quintana (2014 winner), and Richard Carapaz (2019 winner). Moreover, the participation of Tao Geoghegan Hart (2020 winner) remains undetermined, which could raise the count of former champions to a record seven in a single Grand Tour.
As the race approaches, the updated Giro route presents an opportunity to analyze potential narratives for the season. One prevailing question—Will Roglič emerge as the frontrunner for Giro supremacy?—certainly leans towards a resounding yes. With competitors like Pogacar and Vingegaard dedicating their efforts primarily to the Tour, coupled with Evenepoel’s ongoing challenges due to injury, Roglič stands out among the illustrious lineup. He benefits from a formidable team including Hindley and has a route that favors his strengths, featuring two flat individual time trials and a reduction in arduous climbs compared to past editions.
Regarding the challenges posed by the course, while there are concerns about the notorious white roads in the Strade Bianche-themed ninth stage and the San Pellegrino climbs returning after 25 years, only three stages culminate in summit finishes, with just one ascent surpassing 2,000 meters. This setup provides a more balanced dynamic than other races such as the Vuelta, where steep gradients and continuous climbs dominate.
Another intriguing angle is the potential for one of the Yates brothers to cause an upset in the Giro. If past champions like Quintana, Carapaz, and Bernal appear less equipped to contend for the podium, Adam Yates (UAE Team Emirates) and Simon Yates (Visma-Lease a Bike) might well rise to the occasion. Having switched to larger teams, both brothers look poised to lead their respective squads; Simon, in particular, will partner with Wout van Aert at Visma-Lease a Bike, a significant asset considering the early rolling terrain and flat time trials amidst the Giro’s hilly stages.
With this structure in mind, questions loom regarding why Pogacar and Vingegaard opted out of the Giro. After a triumphant Giro-Tour double in 2024, Pogacar’s focus on securing a Vuelta title symbolizes his ambition, as does Vingegaard’s desire to consolidate his Tour legacy with plans to potentially clash with Pogacar once again. Both cyclists are acutely aware of the competitive landscape, with their sights set on not merely participating but leaving an indelible mark on the Grand Tour scene.
Meanwhile, Evenepoel’s situation adds another layer to the unfolding narrative. After a rough winter marred by injuries, the Soudal Quick-Step rider faces a race against time to regain his fitness. Originally hoping for a return in time for various classics, his outlook now hinges on his ability to participate fully in the Tour, where he may have to pivot from a GC contender to more of a stage-hunting role.
With the Grand Tours ahead, a potential duel between Pogacar and Vingegaard could define the season. Each cyclist commands formidable support from their teams, further embedding the competition as they navigate the rigorous challenges ahead. Emerging talents such as Mikel Landa and David Gaudu are also anticipated to make strides this season, albeit as underdogs to the established top-tier cyclists.
In terms of predictions, based on current forms and the characteristics of the tour routes, it seems reasonable to prognosticate a Slovenian sweep across the Grand Tours this year. Roglič is poised for Giro glory, while Pogacar may secure a double with the Tour and the Vuelta follow. However, the unpredictability of cycling ensures fans will witness breathtaking performances and thrilling narratives as the season unfolds. Taking into account all these insights, a tentative forecast yields the following results: Adam Yates for the Giro, Jonas Vingegaard for the Tour, and Tadej Pogacar for the Vuelta
