Recently, a significant shift occurred in Syria as rebel forces stormed the capital, Damascus, marking a critical juncture in the country’s protracted civil war. Reports suggest that President Bashar al-Assad has fled the nation after nearly 13 years of violent conflict that has wrought devastation upon the nation. This rapid progression stemmed from a series of events that began with an offensive launched by the Islamist militant group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) in the north-west just days earlier, which appeared to have crumbled the Syrian military’s defenses.
The situation escalated sharply when HTS and allied factions mobilized an intense campaign, capturing the crucial city of Aleppo, Syria’s second largest, and pushing southwards along the highway towards the capital. Rebels faced minimal resistance as Assad’s military, weakened by continuous warfare, appeared to capitulate under the pressure of the offensive.
The civil war’s origins trace back to 2011 when peaceful protests against al-Assad’s regime devolved into a full-scale conflict, drawing in multiple regional and global powers. Over half a million lives have been lost in this tragedy, and millions more have been forced into exile. For years, it seemed that Assad’s government was reclaiming control of most urban areas, with substantial assistance from allies like Russia and Iran. Nonetheless, pockets of Syria remained outside government control, including areas dominated by the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).
The dynamics of power shifted dramatically following the rebels’ offensive. HTS, established in 2012 under the name al-Nusra Front, has been a formidable force opposing al-Assad, garnering suspicion internationally as it once allied with al-Qaeda. Despite a shift in leadership and ideology over the years, HTS retains a strong grip in places like Idlib and Aleppo, where the group aggressively neutralized rivals to consolidate its control.
As conditions deteriorated for the Syrian government, internal strife grew, punctuated by the ongoing challenges in its partnership with pro-Iranian militias and factors like Russia’s engagement in conflicts elsewhere. This strategic inadequacy paved the way for the HTS offensive on November 27 to “deter” supposed increases in aggression from government forces and their Iranian allies.
What followed was a rapid series of territorial gains for the rebels. They captured Aleppo within days and swiftly moved towards key cities, including Hama, Homs, and finally Damascus. The transition was punctuated by the rebels declaring victory and the eventual flight of Assad from the capital. Prime Minister Mohammed al-Jalali has signaled readiness to steer the country forward and maintain a semblance of governance.
The immediate aftermath revealed a jubilant population celebrating the rebels’ triumph in Damascus and the proclaimed end of Assad’s rule. The declaration was underscored by promises of change following years of tyranny. Jawlani, the HTS leader, has expressed intentions to establish a government derived from the will of the people, emphasizing a fundamental shift alongside the apparent brink of Assad’s regime crumbling.
The international response has been closely monitored by major powers, including the United States, whose President Joe Biden remains in contact with regional partners as the situation in Syria continues to unfold. As ground realities change, the implications for regional stability and geopolitical alliances remain uncertain, with many awaiting the next chapter in Syria’s tumultuous journey towards peace and governance after decades of strife.
With the multilateral dynamics of power at play and the potential for renewed violence or instability in the vacuum left by Assad’s departure, the global community watches sintering around the developments in this war-torn nation. As of now, the liberation of Damascus signifies not just a major victory for the rebels and their allies, but also a pivotal point for the future of Syria itself.
