In a notable move during his second term, President Donald Trump has seemingly revived his unconventional approach to a particularly contentious issue: the national census. This strategy, which can best be described as throwing ideas at the wall to see what sticks, suggests a desperation to reassert control over a statistics-driven process that has troubled him in the past.
The revived focus on the census represents an attempt to seize control of the demographic data that informs many aspects of political representation. On a recent Thursday, Trump mandated that the U.S. Commerce Department “immediately begin work on a new and highly accurate CENSUS” with an explicit goal of excluding undocumented immigrants from its count. This announcement has raised immediate concerns about its feasibility and legality, and reflects Trump’s relentless pursuit of political favor.
The president’s timing is likely influenced by the upcoming 2026 midterm elections. Observers note that figures like Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene have endorsed a mid-decade census, prompting speculation that Trump may be seeking a tactical advantage against Democrats, especially as redistricting looms large, particularly in Texas.
However, the hurdles to implementing such a census are significant. Conducting a national census is an enormous undertaking that requires years of planning, strict adherence to legal protocols, and the agreement to census questions at least two years prior to execution. Trump’s eagerness to fast-track this process appears naïve, given these established constraints.
Moreover, there is a substantial question regarding the authority to conduct this census. Article 1 of the U.S. Constitution expressly designates Congress, and not the president, with the power to manage the enumeration of the population. While Congress has permitted the Commerce Department to carry out a “mid-decade census” in 2025, any data collected cannot be legally utilized for redistricting or Congressional seat apportionment — the very goal Trump aims to achieve through this move. Historical evidence indicates that such a census could shift several districts away from predominantly blue states into red ones, affording Republicans a vital advantage.
Another aspect of Trump’s motivation involves his long-standing aversion to the inclusion of undocumented immigrants in the census count. The Constitution specifies that congressional districts must be apportioned based on “the whole number of persons in each State.” While Trump may seek to exclude this demographic from the count, legal experts suggest that it would be difficult, if not impossible, for the courts to accept the notion that undocumented people are not “persons.”
Trump’s history with census-related issues has been fraught with challenges. Since the outset of his first term, he has attempted to alter how undocumented immigrants are counted, failing repeatedly in various attempts that sometimes resulted in public embarrassment. The initial gambit involved a push for a citizenship question to be added to the census – a plan that ultimately collapsed under the scrutiny of the judiciary, culminating in a landmark decision by Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts in 2019. The court rebuffed the administration’s rationale, describing it as “contrived” and a “distraction.”
Further complicating matters, Trump previously threatened to delay the census, asserting that his legal advisors could find a way to justify such an action. Ultimately, those threats went unfulfilled.
Despite the setbacks of the past, Trump remains undeterred in proposing a strategy that not only lacks a clear legal grounding but also has been repeatedly challenged and dismissed by various stakeholders. His administration’s previous attempts to adjust census methodologies — notably efforts to truncate the census timeline in 2020 in a bid to manipulate the apportionment of congressional districts — were marred by political infighting and accusations of politicization. These tactics ultimately failed to bring about the desired results.
The resurgence of Trump’s focus on the census is perhaps one of the lesser-discussed yet significant concerns of his administration, marginalized by larger scandals but indicative of a broader trend towards manipulating demographic data for political gain. Despite numerous failures in this arena, Trump’s attempts suggest a stubborn commitment to addressing this issue again, eliciting reactions from both analysts and legal experts about the potential implications of his proposals. The national conversation surrounding the census is sure to continue as the battle over voters and representation intensifies, particularly as we approach the next electoral cycle.
