In today’s political landscape, President Donald Trump appears to be distancing himself from Congress, opting for a hands-off approach regarding legislative matters. In recent times, it has become apparent that the President would prefer to operate autonomously rather than rely on the legislative branch to execute his agenda. However, despite this apparent independence, there are still significant pieces of legislation that hinge on congressional approval, the most pressing being the extension of the sweeping tax cuts implemented in 2017.
The situation is complicated by the fact that Trump is pushing for one of the most unpopular legislative initiatives witnessed in decades. Recent polling data indicates that the “One Big Beautiful Bill,” which passed through the House last month, encounters widespread disapproval across the board. Notably, Senate Republicans are currently deliberating on critical aspects of the bill, such as proposed cuts to Medicaid, adjustments to state and local tax deductions, and necessary budget reductions to accommodate the bill’s hefty price tag. Despite the intricate workings behind the scenes, the general public’s response to the bill’s overall framework has been decidedly negative.
Polling data reveals that, on average, the legislation is considered 24 points underwater—indicating that 55% of surveyed Americans actively oppose it while only 31% express support. Comparatively, this bill is even less popular than the previous Trump tax cuts, also known as the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which was deemed 19 points underwater during its introduction. The current bill might just take the lead as the most unpopular piece of major legislation since at least 1990, according to the analysis conducted by George Washington University political scientist Chris Warshaw.
Moreover, the situation is further exacerbated by the perception among the electorate that this new bill disproportionately benefits the wealthy while imposing hardship on lower-income households. Significant percentages of Americans have conveyed that the bill does not serve their interests: 58% believe it will adversely affect those with lower incomes and 51% assert that it will primarily benefit affluent citizens. The data from various polls—such as those conducted by KFF and Fox News—indicates that even among Republican-leaning voters not aligned with the MAGA movement, there is strong opposition to the legislation.
Interestingly, the legislation’s unpopularity is not only calling into question its viability but is also indicative of broader political trends in the country. The discontent around this bill starkly contrasts with the reception of major pieces of legislation passed during the Biden administration, such as COVID-19 relief and infrastructure funding, which enjoyed significantly higher approval ratings. In fact, throughout the years, various significant initiatives, including reforms in health care and financial bailouts, did not experience the profound levels of opposition currently faced by Trump’s proposed legislation.
Yet, it is essential to approach the data with some caution. As it stands, the legislative process is still in its infancy; details remain to be finalized and crafted into a Senate version before being reviewed by the House once again. Although a considerable portion of the populace may be unaware of the intricacies of the bill, their perceptions could very well evolve as information becomes more widespread. Previous instances, such as Trump’s original tax cuts, have demonstrated a shift in public sentiment over time.
Nonetheless, the inherent political risks surrounding the current health care overhaul that could potentially strip millions of insurance are genuinely concerning for GOP legislators as they weigh the implications of pushing this agenda. With calls for extending the tax cuts also necessitating substantial cuts to entitlements, Trump and congressional leaders must navigate complex public sentiments while exploring funding avenues that don’t provoke backlash. The question now facing the Republican party is one of strategy: whether to take the chance of seeing this bill through to passage amidst a climate of substantial public distrust and burgeoning disapproval.
